The Signal and the Noise — Nate Silver
Forecasting, uncertainty, and how often humans confuse confidence with accuracy.
Books
A shelf for books worth keeping around.
A starter list for the kinds of books this site will eventually collect and annotate.
Thinking, Fast and Slow — Daniel Kahneman
Still one of the better introductions to how minds cut corners, including when they really shouldn’t.
Moneyball — Michael Lewis
Not just baseball. It’s also about institutions, incentives, and what happens when numbers embarrass tradition.
The Book of Why — Judea Pearl & Dana Mackenzie
Causality is a useful antidote to shallow “the data says” thinking.
Gödel, Escher, Bach — Douglas Hofstadter
Weird, ambitious, playful, and occasionally glorious. A proper brain-bending shelf resident.
The Alignment Problem — Brian Christian
A readable tour through machine learning, values, optimization, and the small matter of humans being messy.